Optimal Stopping

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San Francisco is a hot rental market.  Most apartments are snatched up within a few days of being listed.  Imagine you are moving to San Francisco and want to find the ideal apartment.  You only have one opportunity to view each apartment and must decide on the spot if you want it.  If you reject it the apartment will be taken by the next renter.  How long should you spend on the apartment search in order to feel confident that you have found the ideal spot?  This is an example of the optimal stopping problem.

algorithmsAccording to the book Algorithms to Live By, “the crucial dilemma is not which option to pick, but how many options to even consider.”  The San Francisco situation is an example from the book which demonstrates that a person must gather enough information to become familiar with the market before selecting.  Pick too early and you risk taking a lousy apartment when the next one would have been superior.  Pick too late and you will regret all the great apartments you passed on. Is there an ideal solution to this dilemma?

Yes! According to the authors it is 37%!  This means you should spend 37% of your allotted time or the first 37% of the potential selections just looking.  This will calibrate you to the market.  After that point, take the first option which exceeds everything else you have looked at so far.  For example, if you have only one month to find an apartment, spend the first eleven days just looking.  On day twelve be ready to commit to the next apartment that is better than all the other ones you viewed up to that point.  This is claimed to be a mathematically provable optimum solution.

To learn more about optimal stopping, pick up a copy of Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths.

Work as a Martial Art

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In his seminars, David Allen often uses his experience with the martial arts as an analogy for GTD.  In his latest blog post, David develops on this theme to show how important it is to stay loose at work.

gtdcover“A tense muscle is a slow one. This is a physiological and demonstrable fact in the martial arts. Could this be true in other aspects of our lives?

In karate, the power that can be generated by a punch is primarily due to speed, not muscle. It is the snap at the end of the whip. That is why petite people can learn to break boards and bricks with their hands—it’s not really about callouses, it’s more about the ability to generate that pop at the end of the thrust.

But a tense muscle is a slow one. So the high levels of training in the martial arts are about relaxation and balance, because that allows the flexibility and response-ability required to mobilize maximum resources at maximum speed for maximum results.”

Read the rest of his blog post at the Getting Things Done web site.

Explore / Exploit

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Quick question: when it is time to select a spot for a special dinner would you rather return to an old favorite restaurant or take a chance on a new place that no one has been to before?  This choice is an example of a classic decision making challenge known as the Explore / Exploit trade off.

algorithmsIn order to discover new and exciting things in life, we have to be willing to explore options.  This will naturally result in some failures, but the treasures out there waiting to be discovered can be worth the effort.  However, once we have found a great resource it is tempting to keeping going back to the well to get as much of it as possible.  In the book, Algorithms to Live By, the authors sum up the trade off in this way: “Exploration is gathering information, and exploitation is using the information you have to get a known good result.”

In general, the research shows that at the beginning of a given time frame it is much better to focus energy on exploring.  After the halfway point it makes more sense to exploit the good stuff you have found.  I recently used this logic with my daughter on a trip to the Legoland theme park.  I encouraged her to try out as many new rides as possible on the first day of our visit, and then use the second day to go back to the rides she enjoyed the most and do them as often as she could.  It made for a very enjoyable experience as she braved new exciting roller coaster experiences, but still had time for her old calmer favorites.

So don’t be shy, go out and explore!  However, plan to enjoy the fruits of that exploration by saving time to exploit your favorites.

What Does It Mean To Be Organized

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Many people gravitate to a system like Getting Things Done to help develop basic organizational skills.  This is true for me.  Years ago I recognized that my messy desk and inbox was a detriment to my productivity.  I badly needed a system to get myself organized so I could handle more workflow and meet my deadlines.

In a recent blog post on GTD Times, Marian Bateman, Certified GTD Coach, explores what it really means to be organized:

cleandesk“What does it mean to be organized? It used to be the definition was clean and neat. You know the offices–you walk in the door and it looks likes no one works there. The desk has nothing on it, except for a cool object and a photo. Is this what being organized really means?

My answer is we need to update our definition of what the term organized means.”

Read the rest of the blog entry at: http://gettingthingsdone.com/2017/02/what-does-it-mean-to-be-organized/

Everyone is Above Average

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Quick question: on a scale of one (low) to five (high) how would you rank your own driving ability relative to the other drivers in your area?  If you are like most people, you probably rank yourself as a very good driver, definitely better than most people on the road.  When scientists researched this question, one study found that 74% of all drivers thought they were above average.  One possible reason for this statistically impossible result is the Illusory Superiority fallacy, also known as the Lake Wobegon Effect.

lakewobegondaysIllusory Superiority is a cognitive bias whereby individuals overestimate their own qualities and abilities relative to others.  It is sometimes called the Lake Wobegon Effect after Garrison Keller’s fictional home town in Minnesota where “all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.”  The trap with this fallacy is that it prevents people from seriously examining their own skills and thus overlooking opportunities for growth. From a personal development standpoint, the Illusory Superiority fallacy can be a barrier to self-improvement on many fronts.

Avoiding this fallacy is tricky, but not impossible.  One path forward is to find measurable benchmarks that personal performance can be judged against, such as national or local averages.  Another approach is to seek non-bias feedback from peers, for example in the form of a 360 review.  Either way, developing a critical eye regarding your own performance opens up avenues for personal improvement that may not have been recognized before.

Now excuse me while I listen to old episodes of A Prairie Home Companion …

Think like a Computer Scientist

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Have you ever experienced a time when you had trouble making a choice and found yourself continually looking at alternatives?  How easy is it for you to decide when to try a new restaurant or return to an old favorite?  What is the best way to make good choices when anticipating for an uncertain future?

These are all types of challenges that computer scientists face when designing computer memory, systems, and networks.  In their new book, Algorithms to Live By: the Computer Science of Human Decisions,  authors Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths explore fascinating ways that discoveries in computer science can help improve our own decision making on a wide range of problems.  Some of the topics they explore include:

  • algorithmsOptimal stopping : when to stop looking
  • Explore/exploit : the latest vs. the greatest
  • Sorting : making order
  • Bayes’s Rule : predicting the future
  • Overfitting : when to think less
  • Randomness : when to leave it to chance
  • Networking : how we connect

Algorithms to Live By is “A fascinating exploration of how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind.” (from the dust jacket)

Why Things Don’t Get Done

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Have you ever noticed that somethings things don’t get done?  I know, this is a “Duh” insight.  The amount of things that don’t get done can seem larger than what actually gets done.  When you look closely, there is often a simple reason why some things that should get done don’t get done.  David Allen addresses this topic in a recent blog entry:

davidallen“I have noticed a tendency for people to spend a lot of time in high-energy meetings and discussions, and a high resistance at the end of those meetings and discussions to clarify—“Do I have the next action on this, or do you?” or “Whose is this now, to make happen?”

“This lack of declaring an owner for the action, outcome, or area of focus is why at home many couples and families have huge stacks of papers and “stuff” on the counter between the kitchen and the dining room, by the phone, and in the front hall, and why a lot of personal projects are “stuck.” No in-trays. No immediate physical, visible distinction as to who actually has the next action or decision about this bill, this brochure, this note from the teacher. Everybody sort of feels responsible for it, but no one really owns it. So it doesn’t happen.”

Read the rest of this blog entry at the Getting Things Done web site.

11% of Email

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Email has an excitement around it because of its immediacy.  It comes in fast and can be responded to quickly.  Pop-up notifications, bells, and vibrating cell phones beckon one to view their incoming messages like a Pavlovian Dog, making it feel like every email must be answered as soon as it arrives.  But if you stop to think about it, how much of your email do you really need to see as soon as it shows up?

danarielyDan Ariely, a researcher in behavioral economics and author of books including The Upside of Irrationality and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty, wanted to find out how much email is really so important that it needs immediate attention.  The findings reported on his blog came to a strong conclusion.  Participants in his study indicated that out of all the email that arrived in their inbox, only 11% of it warranted immediate attention.  Basically, just 1 in 10 messages that arrived in participant’s inboxes were worthy of quick action.  The rest could wait for hours or days and 24% could be trashed immediately.

Take this finding as an excuse to relax around email.  If you haven’t done so already, turn off all notifications of new messages that only serve to break your concentration.  The takeaway here is not to worry if you haven’t checked email in a while.  The truth is most email can wait.

Inbox Zero

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inbox-zeroEmail provides for many people their most difficult productivity challenge.  The sheer volume of messages can overwhelm an inefficient processing system very quickly.  While some people may be tempted to declare email bankruptcy and delete all their messages, there are better ways to process all that incoming electronic data.  One approach that is based in part on GTD methodology is Inbox Zero, developed by Michael Mann and found on his web site 43 Folders.  The site hasn’t been updated in a while, but the information is still useful.  From the web site:

“43 Folders is focused on an arc about how to improve the quality of your career and life by managing your attention in a way that allows you to work your ass off on the creative projects that matter most to you.”

His web site is most famous for the Inbox Zero posts.  The component of Inbox Zero that is most powerful for me is the idea to reduce the number of email reference folders down to one or a very few and then relying on your email app’s power searching tools to search for archived material.  This saves time on the front end while sorting email and on the back end when retrieving it. Take up the 43 Folders Inbox Zero challenge by reading all the posts on this topic, compiled on one page.  See if it makes a difference to your electronic world.