Category: Decision Making

Possibilities are Not Probabilities – Comprehending Chance

Leave a comment

The most popular article on my Efficient Librarian website is Deal or No Deal Mr. Hall – How We Misunderstand Probability. That article was framed with a real story from the game show Deal or No Deal. This week I published a follow up article to dive deeper into the Deal or No Deal problem to demonstrate the fact that possibilities are not probabilities.

Below is the start of the article:

When are airplane comes in for a landing there are two possible outcomes: a safe landing or a crash landing. Therefore, what is the probability that the plane will crash?

Recently during a presentation of my seminar, Why Did I Make that Dumb Decision?  Understanding Common Fallacies of Decision Making and How to Avoid Them, I asked this question to the audience. Immediately, someone answered 50%. 

Photo by Sheila Condi on Pexels.com

Of course this was not accurate. Commercial airplanes rarely crash. The website, FlyFright, shares government statistics that show odds of a plane crashing are 0.000001%. Also, there is a 1 in 816,545,929 chance of dying in a plane crash.

In fact, the most dangerous part of air travel is driving to and from the airport! Data from the Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles department shows 3,454 fatal motor vehicle crashes in 2021. That is only one state out of 50! Given the higher frequency of car crashes, why are more people afraid of flying than driving? One reason is that we are primed to hear about plane crashes since these rare incidents are covered widely in the national media. Car crashes by contrast only get brief mention on the local news.

This example highlights the simple fact that possibilities are not probabilities. In the majority of cases where there are multiple possible outcomes, they are not equally likely to happen. Yet, our minds often default to thinking all possibilities are equally likely. This can lead to poor decision making.

Read the rest of the article on the Efficient Librarian website.

Shola Richards Webinar – Mon. September 16!

Leave a comment

Please review this wonderful opportunity to watch one of my favorite authors, Shola Richards, be interviewed about his latest book, Civil Unity. This event is hosted by the Florida Library Association.

Shola Richards – In Conversation with Kris McGuigan

Monday, September 16, 2024, 12 PM – 1 PM EDT
Free for FLA members; $25 for non-members

REGISTER HERE! 

Join us for a thought-provoking and inspiring webinar, featuring best-selling author Shola Richards as he discusses his latest book, Civil Unity: The Radical Path to Transform Our Discourse, Our Lives, and Our World. In a society where division and discord seem to be at an all-time high, Richards is leading the movement to reverse these destructive trends and bring more connectedness, respect and civility to our world. 

During this one-hour session, Richards will be interviewed by FLA 2024 Annual Conference keynote presenter, Kris McGuigan. The discussion will delve into the key themes of the book, exploring how we can unite behind a new kind of civility to create safer communities, reduce toxicity in our political discourse, and build supportive environments in our workplaces and schools. Moreover, Richards will share a behind-the-scenes look at his writing process, points of inspiration, and favorite chapters. 

The webinar will feature a live Q&A session, where attendees will have the opportunity to ask questions. This is a unique chance to engage directly with two authors who are passionate about transforming how we engage with one another and the world around us.   

Whether you are looking to deepen your understanding of civil discourse, seeking practical tactics to implement in your library, or simply want to be inspired by a conversation that matters, this webinar is not to be missed. 

The “Didn’t Know” Rule

Leave a comment

Have you ever opened up a drawer and marveled at the discovery of something you didn’t even know you owned?

Given how much stuff we accumulate it is easy to pick up items without consciously remembering it! For me this happens at a conference when vendors hand out bookmarks, pens, and other items like candy at Halloween. While it is easy to acquire stuff, for most of us the challenge is getting rid of things we don’t want anymore.

The Minimalists have a simple approach to clearing out unneeded belongings. It’s called the “Didn’t Know” rule. Basically, it means that if you find something you didn’t know you owned, you can permit yourself to let it go. 

Barbara Bellesi Zito writing for the website Apartment Therapy, experimented with this approach. She tried it out on three boxes and soon discovered a surprise.

Taking up an entire box was a pile of TilePix I had purchased around three years ago when I snagged a sale. These photos from my phone didn’t render well at all, so I had no desire to hang them in our home. They went right into the garbage pile; I have the originals on my phone anyway, and I had completely forgotten I even had these in storage.

After completing the task of organizing the boxes, she wrote down three insights.

  • If you don’t know you have something, you can’t truly be missing it.
  • If it’s sentimental or something you need to hold on to, by all means, keep it.
  • Unless the storage in question holds seasonal clothing or items, check on it every few months or so to make sure you still want what’s in it.

I challenge you to take 10 minutes in the next 24 hours to practice this simple decluttering technique. For me, I’m eyeing that middle desk draw. I know it has long forgotten stuff waiting to be rediscovered …

David Allen – Principles that Make Teams Work

Leave a comment

How do highly productive teams come about? Are there underlying ideas that make them successful?

In their new book, Team, David Allen and cowriter Edward Lamont explore how GTD can be used to improve teamwork. They start with looking at the underlying principles, which they consider akin to fundamental laws, that allow for productive work amongst team members. (pg. 66) David and Edward identify five specific principles (pg. 67):

  • Clarity
  • Sufficient Trust
  • Open Communication
  • Learning
  • Diversity

To understand these principles, it is helpful to explore one in more detail. Starting with clarity, David and Edward break down why it this principle is important.

A team needs clarity on purpose and direction. A team is defined by its purpose and most effectively operates using well-defined standards and processes. … without it, there is confusion about who’s responsible for what and who needs to be informed about it, as well as the risk of double work and eating up the attention of people who don’t need to know. Implicit here is clarity of ownership. There always needs to be one person to go to, inside or outside the organization, when clarity is needed on a problem or situation that involves the team. (pg. 68)

David and Edward also believe that clarity is important for the psychological health of the team. For them, clarity provides clear knowledge of the team’s current situation.

One of the big wins in terms of clarity is knowing – and accepting – how much the team is already trying to do, and having some view on whether it is humanly possible to achieve it. (pg. 69)

Pick up a copy of Team to learn more about clarity and the other four principles of teamwork.

The Second-Worst Task List App

Leave a comment

How do you keep track of your tasks?

There are many different ways to remember all the items you need to do, whether it be in an electronic format, paper-based, or a hybrid of both. According to John Forrister, associate of David Allen, there is one method that is the worst way of all – your mind! As he wrote in a recent blog post called The Second-Worst Task List App:

If there is a second-worst task list app, there must be a first-worst, right? Yes — it’s your mind. It’s really good at many things, but managing your task list is not one of them. You know that already. You wouldn’t be reading this without already having a calendar and some version of a task list. 

John then postulates on what would be the second worst way to keep track of your tasks. With this question he not referencing a specific app or piece of software. Instead, he is looking at the systematic process that many people use accidentally.

For several reasons, my nomination for the second-worst task list app is an inbox with stuff that’s been there more than 48 hours. I use the email inbox as an example here, but you can probably apply this reasoning to other places where your inputs show up and need to be clarified.

He then proceeds to list reasons why an email inbox is unproductive as a task reminder. Two reasons include:

1. You need to keep rereading at least the subject lines of the first screen of emails, which uses your valuable time inefficiently. If there’s more than one screen, you are likely scrolling into the past fairly often, to scan those older emails.

2. You may be opening, rereading, then closing the emails to remind yourself what they’re about.

How do we keep our inbox from becoming a default bad task manager? Read the rest of the blog post to find out!

Kris McGuigan on Courage

2 Comments

In these trying times, we all need to build more courage in our lives. The question is how to do it!

As the current Florida Library Association President, I am very excited about our upcoming conference in Orlando May 15-17. At the top of my list for the event is listening to our Keynote Speaker, Kris McGuigan. She is the author of The Requisite Courage, a book designed to help build confidence and clarity in your life in order to overcome any obstacle. As Kris describes of the book on her website.

Life is full of disruption: whether suffering a loss, altering your environment, or gaining a new leader. The Requisite Courage offers the precise know-how for navigating change, taking control of your destiny, and creating long-lasting results.

If you want to align your corporate strengths to personal values or just need to stop clinging to the status quo, The Requisite Courage is the direct and fearless approach to problem-solving you’ve been missing.

I am excited to share that Kris will be doing an exclusive Q&A with FLA members on Tues. March 5, 2 pm EST. This will be a great opportunity to meet Kris for a discussion about courage and other topics.

Also, see highlights of Kris as a speaker by checking out her Speaker Demo Reel on YouTube.

Registration is now open for the FLA Conference. I hope to see you in Orlando.

Choosing What to Do: The Steps for Engagement

Leave a comment

Did you know the secret to getting things done is to do actions that get things done?

I know that sounds like a big “duh”, but in honesty people frequently get hung up on their next move. Even if they have defined their work, decided on next actions, and have their lists available, picking the precise thing to do in any given moment can still trip up overthinkers. Thankfully, David Allen has thought through the process of engagement, which is the fifth stage of the GTD workflow process. On his website he shared tips to help decide which action to do next.

When it’s time to Engage, people often ask how to choose from what may be long lists of tasks to do. That’s when it’s helpful to use the criteria for choosing:

Context – What place, tool, or person will the action require? This is the first limitation for choosing–it has to be. If you’re not in the right place, don’t have the right tool, or access to the required person, you can’t take the action.

Time available – How much time do you have to take the action? If you have 20 minutes, only consider actions that you think will take less than 20 minutes.

Resources – What is your energy like to take the action? Have you been in back-to-back meetings all day and you’re tired? Or are you just finishing your morning coffee and feeling alert and enthusiastic? You’re probably already considering this more than you realize when you choose what to do.

Priorities – What’s the most important one to choose based on your roles, goals, long-term strategy, and purpose?

David then goes to share how to use the Horizons of Focus to narrow down your priorities along with a description of the three-fold nature of work. What to learn more? Click over to the Getting Things Done website to find out!

Einstein’s 7 Rules for a Better Life

Leave a comment

E=MC2

The most famous equation in all of physics was developed by arguably the best-known scientist ever, Albert Einstein. While that equation had to do with calculating energy, Einstein was not just a student of theoretical physics, but also a great study of how to live a good life.

In a recent article on The Big Think, Ethan Siegel explores Einstein’s 7 Rules for a Better Life. Taken from a recent biography on the great scientist, Siegel shares life lessons which served Einstein well. For example, take Rule #3, Have a Puzzle Mindset.

Einstein was pretty much the prototype individual for someone who viewed every difficulty he faced as a puzzle to be solved: in physics and beyond.

Consider his oft-misunderstood but most famous quote, “Imagination is more important than knowledge.” While many people had looked at the puzzle of objects moving near the speed of light before — including other geniuses like FitzGerald, Maxwell, Lorentz, and Poincaré — it was Einstein’s unique perspective that allowed him to approach that problem in a way that led him to the revolution of special relativity. With a flexible, non-rigid worldview, Einstein would easily challenge assumptions that others couldn’t move past, allowing him to conceive of ideas that others would unceremoniously reject out-of-hand.

Rule #4 carried on this thought by sharing the advice to: Think deeply, both long and hard, about things that truly fascinate you.

Over the course of his long life, Einstein received many letters: from those who knew him well to perfect strangers. When one such letter arrived on Einstein’s desk in 1946, asking the genius what they should do with their life, the response was as astute as it was compassionate. “The main thing is this. If you have come across a question that interests you deeply, stick to it for years and do never try to content yourself with the solution of superficial problems promising relatively easy success.”

Learn about the remaining five rules by clicking over the The Big Think website.

Parrells Between Money and Productivity

Leave a comment

Have you heard the admonishment that “Time is Money?”

It is an old saying that exhorts us to make best use of our daily actions in order to reap financial rewards. Taken to heart, it would also imply that being productive will increase the amount of money we acquire. Is there truth to this conclusion?

Tiago Forte believes that there are similarities between productivity practices and budgeting. In an article on his website, Tiago shares thirteen parallels that define successful application of both skills. The first one has to do with aligning with a deeper purpose.

“What do I want my money to do for me?” Everything else depends on the answer: if you value freedom and autonomy, your decisions will look very different from someone who values security and stability.

It’s likewise very valuable to ask yourself, “What do I want my work to do for me?” Besides the obvious answer of “provide a paycheck,” the conclusion you come to has profound implications for where, when, and how you work.

If you value creativity and self-expression, but an ever greater proportion of your to do list is filled with administrative tasks, you will eventually experience dissatisfaction and burnout, regardless of how many hours you work or how much it pays.

Another parallel he shares has to do with shifting our thinking. Tiago believes we should let go of what “should be” and honestly accept what is actually happening.

There is a deeply seated human tendency, when things aren’t going how we believe they “should go,” to simply deny reality. We can make up justifications, rationalizations, and excuses effortlessly, and maintain them even when the impact on our health, happiness, and relationships becomes unbearable.

Simply knowing what is happening is half the battle when it comes to money or productivity. Getting a hold on the “current state” requires letting go of the lenses and stories we use to buffer reality and protect our ego. This is why making a comprehensive Project List is so powerful – it lays out the current state of affairs in objective detail, allowing us to make fully informed decisions.

Learn about the other eleven parallels by reading the rest of the article.