Beware of Sunk Costs

Imagine you paid twenty dollars for a ticket to a local amateur play.  The day of the show, a friend surprises you with a free ticket to an exclusive concert featuring your favorite musician.  Do you choose to go to the play or the concert?  When behavioral economists run this type of experiment, they find most people will stick to the less attractive option (the play) because they paid for the ticket.  This is an example of the sunk cost fallacy in action.

Our minds are easily trapped by sunk costs.  According to Investopedia, a sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and thus cannot be recovered.  While this concept is often discussed around investments of money, sunk costs also include time and resources.  Think of how often an organization will add patches to clunky system instead of ditching it to build a new one.  People will stubbornly remain committed to a project that is going nowhere because of all the work put into it, even if results remain elusive.

dollarsandsenseRemember, a sunk cost is not recoverable, which gives rise to the famous expression, “Chasing good money after bad.”  The trick is to evaluate the current status of a project, investment, or commitment in light of where it stands now and ignore past contributions.  This way, it is possible to stay nimble and take advantage of better opportunities when they arise.

More information on sunk costs, especially around money, can be found in the book, Dollars and Sense: How we Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter, by Dan Ariely and Jeff Kresisler.

Head in the Cloud

There is an amazing paradox happening right now.  Due to the massive growth of the Internet, people have access to more information at their fingerprints than can ever be consumed in a thousand lifetimes.  However, it seems as if misinformation and lack of understanding are proliferating just as quickly as new Facebook accounts are activated.  In fact, people almost seem to have a worse understanding of the world than their pre-Internet grandparents had!

headinthecloudIn this book, Head in the Cloud, author William Poundstone explores the question of whether all this online information is only serving to make us less informed.  Online information is easier to skim, but hard to dive into deeply.  Poundstone specifically highlights a phenomenon known as the Dunning-Kruger effect which can lead people to overestimate their own level of knowledge in a subject area.

“Those most lacking in knowledge and skills are least able to appreciate that lack.  … The Dunning-Kruger effect requires a minimal degree of knowledge and experience in the area about which you are ignorant (and ignorant of your ignorance).” (p.10 & p.12)

In short, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Read more by picking up a copy of the book from your local library.

What makes us feel good about our work?

Why do we go through the trouble to get up every weekday to commute to work?  Sure we need the money and it can be fun to spend the day with our coworkers.  However, are their motivational factors that make the difference when it comes to committing ourselves fully to our jobs and businesses?

danarielyThis is a question of great interest to behavioral economist Dan Ariely.  So much so that he did several experiments which aimed to probe deep into how people assign value to the work they do.  The results of the experiments were shared in a TED Talk.  From the video description:

What motivates us to work? Contrary to conventional wisdom, it isn’t just money. But it’s not exactly joy either. It seems that most of us thrive by making constant progress and feeling a sense of purpose.  Behavioral economist Dan Ariely presents two eye-opening experiments that reveal our unexpected and nuanced attitudes toward meaning in our work.

Click here to watch Dan Ariely’s TED Talk.

Everyone is Above Average

Quick question: on a scale of one (low) to five (high) how would you rank your own driving ability relative to the other drivers in your area?  If you are like most people, you probably rank yourself as a very good driver, definitely better than most people on the road.  When scientists researched this question, one study found that 74% of all drivers thought they were above average.  One possible reason for this statistically impossible result is the Illusory Superiority fallacy, also known as the Lake Wobegon Effect.

lakewobegondaysIllusory Superiority is a cognitive bias whereby individuals overestimate their own qualities and abilities relative to others.  It is sometimes called the Lake Wobegon Effect after Garrison Keller’s fictional home town in Minnesota where “all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.”  The trap with this fallacy is that it prevents people from seriously examining their own skills and thus overlooking opportunities for growth. From a personal development standpoint, the Illusory Superiority fallacy can be a barrier to self-improvement on many fronts.

Avoiding this fallacy is tricky, but not impossible.  One path forward is to find measurable benchmarks that personal performance can be judged against, such as national or local averages.  Another approach is to seek non-bias feedback from peers, for example in the form of a 360 review.  Either way, developing a critical eye regarding your own performance opens up avenues for personal improvement that may not have been recognized before.

Now excuse me while I listen to old episodes of A Prairie Home Companion

Think like a Computer Scientist

Have you ever experienced a time when you had trouble making a choice and found yourself continually looking at alternatives?  How easy is it for you to decide when to try a new restaurant or return to an old favorite?  What is the best way to make good choices when anticipating for an uncertain future?

These are all types of challenges that computer scientists face when designing computer memory, systems, and networks.  In their new book, Algorithms to Live By: the Computer Science of Human Decisions,  authors Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths explore fascinating ways that discoveries in computer science can help improve our own decision making on a wide range of problems.  Some of the topics they explore include:

  • algorithmsOptimal stopping : when to stop looking
  • Explore/exploit : the latest vs. the greatest
  • Sorting : making order
  • Bayes’s Rule : predicting the future
  • Overfitting : when to think less
  • Randomness : when to leave it to chance
  • Networking : how we connect

Algorithms to Live By is “A fascinating exploration of how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind.” (from the dust jacket)

The Curse of Knowledge

Librarians by and large are very knowledgeable people.  Most librarians are drawn to the profession because of a love of learning.  Unfortunately, librarians sometimes struggle to share the value of the library with the general public.  We have a hard time figuring out why people don’t use our great databases or tap into our research skills.  Everyone should already know how good the library is – right?  Unfortunately, it may be that we librarians are suffering from the Curse of Knowledge.

curse of knowledgeTo be clear, this curse has nothing to do with magic or ancient mystical tombs.  The Curse of Knowledge is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals are unable to ignore the knowledge they have which others do not, or when they are unable to disregard information already processed.  This is the reason why an expert musician can make a lousy teacher of novices, because the expert forgets what it is like to know so little.

Chip and Dan Health discuss the Curse of Knowledge at length in their best selling book, Made to Stick.  In that book they analysis how to make ideas stick in the minds of listeners of any background.  Specifically, they identity ways to get around the curse by keeping  ideas simple, unexpected, concrete, credible, emotional, and wrapped with stories.  I highly recommend Made to Stick as an antidote to the Curse of Knowledge.

Satisfice Your Work With Care

Imagine you are shopping for new running shoes, but you feel tired after a long day. So you browse quickly through one store, narrow the search to a couple of pairs, make a quick decision to buy one and go.  Did you get the best deal?  Was it the optimum fit?  Probably not to both questions because you just engaged in satisficing.

Satisficing is a decision-making strategy that satisficeentails searching through the available alternatives until an acceptability threshold is met.  (Satisficing = Satisfy + Suffice)  Often this is a viable strategy since searching for the perfect product or solution would run into the law of diminishing returns where additional effort leads to fewer results.  So a natural tendency is to find the first good choice and stop there. While satisficing can be a good short term option, it may result in long term inefficiencies.  The quick purchase of running shoes now could produce regret over the colors and painful blisters a few days later.

I challenge you to be very careful about accepting satisficing in the workplace.  What seems like the easy way out can lead to long term productivity loss.  For example thinking “Do I really need to empty my inbox?  I checked the new messages and that’s good enough;” can quickly turn a clear head of “mind like water” into a foggy pool of “muddy water.”  If you want to succeed in the martial art of work, be prepared to put in the effort to improve every day and not accept the easy solution.  Satisfice with care when it comes to the things that matter in order to avoid later regret.